Competitor Forecasting in Commercial Due Diligence: How to Chase Down a Moving Target
In a typical commercial diligence process, a significant amount of work is conducted to understand how the end-market and channels will grow and develop - ‘market forecasting.’
Fruit that’s Ripe for Non-traditional Disruption (and how to diligence the prospect of it)
The Amazon Whole Foods tie-up is certainly throwing more than a couple of mature industries for a loop: food production, logistics and distribution, mass-retail and groceries. Since the announcement (and as of today), Costco lost 17% of its value; Kroger is down 30%; Sprouts is down 24%; Wal-Mart took a hit but seems to be holding its own.
Indefensible (Competitive Position)
I’m fairly certain that just about every commercial diligence assignment conducted is going to include measurement of the asset's commercial strength relative to customer needs and expectations, and relative to perceptions of competitors and alternatives.
Many Private Equity deals involve a “platform and add-on” play – predicated at least in part on “bigger is better”. Among the various benefits of consolidation, some of the most commonly cited value gen opportunities relate to bundling and cross-selling. Just this year, we’ve worked on deals from building products to processed meats where this has been a key part of the investment…